A deep dive into Company X's headcount, attrition, and pay using an HR dataset. Observing workforce trends, drawing key insights, and making recommendations to leadership.
Peak headcount (2015)
Latest headcount (2018)
Latest TTM turnover
Voluntary share of exits
The big picture
The company is shrinking through a hiring freeze rather than an attrition crisis. Voluntary departures are concentrated almost entirely in the Production department, which has a structural pay-competitiveness gap. Pay equity within roles is healthy; the small raw gap is a composition effect.
1. Hiring freeze, not attrition crisis
Headcount peaked in mid-2015 and has trended down since. The driver is reduced hiring, not a spike in terminations.
→ See more details about Finding 1
2. Voluntary attrition concentrated in Production department
Production is 67% of headcount but accounts for 86% of lifetime voluntary departures.
→ See more details about Finding 2
3. Pay inverts with tenure inside Production department
Within Production, pay falls with tenure. The newest hires earn meaningfully more than veterans.
→ See more details about Finding 3
Key findings
| # | Finding | Headline number |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hiring freeze, not attrition crisis | Annual turnover 3.6–9.9% (low by BLS 2019 labour-turnover data) |
| 2 | Voluntary attrition concentrated in Production department | 86% of voluntary exits from 67% of headcount |
| 3 | Production has a structural pay-competitiveness gap | Stayers earn 12.7% more than leavers at 5–10 yrs tenure |
| 4 | Pay equity is healthy; raw gap is composition | 2.1% raw gap → ~0% within position |
Recommendations
The single highest-leverage intervention indicated by the analysis is a market-rate salary review for Production roles at 3+ years of tenure. This directly addresses the pay-competitiveness gap that drives most voluntary attrition at Company X.
Three supporting interventions:
- Replace the engagement survey as a Production retention forecaster. The current instrument fails to detect the dissatisfaction driving exits.
- Build a merit-pay premium for Production, since performers who are "Exceeding Expectations" currently earn only marginally more than those that "Fully Meet Expectations".
- Investigate the Production Manager pay structure for tenure-based equity concerns (small sample, worth a deliberate look).